Glossary

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EUROPEAN UNION

GDP

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the value of all final goods and services produced in the Euro area. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the principal indicator of economic performance.

Current Account

Also known as the balance of payments, this data analyzes all transactions between the Euro area and the rest of the world. It is the most comprehensive measure of international transactions.

Unemployment Rate

Percentage of the workforce

DEM Unemployment Change

Figure expressed in thousands. A positive number means unemployment is increasing and is therefore viewed badly by the market. In reverse a negative number is actually welcome since it means unemployment is decreasing.

CPI

This index measures the change in prices for a fixed basket of goods and services, which is purchased by consumers.

ZEW Economic Survey

The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic for the expected economic development in Germany in six months.

IFO Economic Survey

A gauge of German business confidence, based on executives' inputs.

Industrial Production

A measure of total industrial out of Euro-zone calculated on a month over month and year over year basis.

DEM Industrial Production

A composite index of German industrial output including manufacturing (82%), construction (9.5%), energy (5.9%),, and mining (2.7%). It is one of the most important indicators for German output performance and overall growth as industry accounts for close to 40% of GDP.

DEM Factory Orders

An index of the volume of orders for manufactured products to German industry including intermediate goods (45.6%), capital goods (35.1%), consumer durables (11.8%), and consumer non-durables (7.4%). It is usually a good indicator of output performance.

Retail Trade

Self-explanatory

DEM Retail Sales

An aggregate for the sales of many forms of retail outlets, important for estimating German private consumption.

Euro-Zone Labor Costs

The expenditures borne by employers in order to employ workers, both in terms of direct and indirect costs.

PMI Services and Manufacturing

Survey of service providers, focuses on issues such as costs and demand.

UNITED STATES

GDP

GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced in the US. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the principal indicator of economic performance.

Current Account

Also known as the balance of payments, this data analyzes all transactions between the US and the rest of the world. It is the most comprehensive measure of international transactions.

Non-Farm Payrolls

A component of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report which is the single most important report on economic activity.

CPI

This index measures the change in prices for a fixed basket of goods and services, which is purchased by consumers.

LEI

A composite of economic variables designed to signal turning points in the economy. As a rule of thumb, three declines in a row are interpreted as signaling a recession (with an average lead time of about 12 months).

ISM Manufacturing

Approximately 300 companies are asked to comment on the relative growth of five categories relating to the manufacturing sector. Results over 50 are bullish, whereas results under 50 are bearish.

ISM Non-Man.

Growth survey for non-manufacturing sectors.

Industrial Production

Primarily a gauge for manufacturing activity, measures the total output of all factories, mines, and utilities. This indicator is extremely useful for predicting shifts in overall economic cycles, and can be used to gauge changes in GDP.

Durable Goods

This indicator measures the total number of manufacturers' orders for durable goods, which are defined as goods with a foreseeable lifespan of three years or more. It acts as a gauge for manufacturing activity.

Empire State Manufacturing

Participants from a variety of industries within New York state are asked to evaluate current and upcoming conditions.

Philly Fed

A survey of manufacturing in the Philadelphia Reserve Bank district. An especially important component is the current general activity index

Existing Home Sales

A private report on sales of previously-owned single-family homes. Along with new home sales as an economic indicator.

Personal Income

Consumption accounts for two-thirds of GDP, and income is the main determinant of consumption.

Personal Consumption

Consumption consists of purchases of goods and services; it accounts for two-thirds of GDP.

U. Mich. Con. Confidence

This survey asks consumers to evaluate the overall business climate as it pertains to their own situation. There is a direct correlation between consumer sentiment and the growth of consumer spending; the latter is especially important because it makes up two-thirds of GDP.

UNITED KINGDOM

GDP

GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced in the UK. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the principal indicator of economic performance.

Current Account

Also known as the balance of payments, this data analyzes all transactions between the UK and the rest of the world. It is the most comprehensive measure of international transactions.

Unemployment Change

Based on unemployed individuals who are actively seeking work and are claiming unemployment-related benefits.

CPI

This index measures the change in prices for a fixed basket of goods and services, which is purchased by consumers.

LEI

A composite of economic variables designed to signal turning points in the economy. As a rule of thumb, three declines in a row are interpreted as signaling a recession (with an average lead time of about 12 months).

RICS House Balance

An index of house price inflation.

Nationwide House Prices

An index of house prices.

Retail Sales m/m

Monitors the volume and value of retail sales, comprised of food, non-specialized stores, clothing and footwear, household goods, non-store retailing, and other nonfood.

BRC Shop Price Index

An indicator of price changes in retail outlets, providing a picture of the inflation faced by shoppers on the most commonly bought items.

Industrial Production

Output indexes of production industries, comprised of mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and electricity/gas/water supply.

Manufacturing Production

The most important component of the Industrial Production Report.

CIPS Services

Monitors activity in the services sector.

CIPS Manufacturing

Monitors activity in the manufacturing sector.

CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey

The survey of the manufacturing sector contains a lot of information about orders, inventories, output, overall business confidence, intentions, cost pressures, and capacity utilization.

CBI Distributive Trades Survey

A survey of some 500 to 600 firms involved in distribution. There are 3 subgroups: wholesaling, retailing, and the auto trade.

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